Five points with three games left. Arsenal need just one more win to make the Premier League title mathematically theirs, and after Leandro Trossard's late goal beat West Ham 1-0 at the London Stadium on Sunday, the Gunners are closer than they have been all season to ending their long wait for the title. Manchester City, chasing from second, have a game in hand — but the maths is brutal for them. If Arsenal win one of their semaining three matches, it is done.
Trossard's winner came in the 81st minute. It was not a fluent performance from Arteta's side, if we are being honest about it. West Ham sat deep, disrupted Arsenal's rhythm in the first half, and the Gunners needed someone to conjure something from nothing in the second. Trossard is exactly the kind of player who does that — the Belgian has a habit of arriving in games at the precise moment you need him. His finish was clinical, and the three points were secured despite Arsenal's best efforts to make it complicated.
The title race in numbers
Arsenal have 79 points from 36 matches. City have 74 from 35. Even if City win their game in hand, the gap would be one point. Arsenal's remaining fixtures are manageable on paper — though nothing in football is ever guaranteed. The odds trackers have Arsenal at around 87% to win the title, which sounds comfortable until you remember that City's remaining schedule includes games they are perfectly capable of winning. Still, the ball is in Arsenal's court, and it has been for most of the second half of this season.
This is Arteta's third title challenge in four years. The previous two ended in heartbreak — City pulling clear in the final stretch each time. What feels different about this version is the composure at the top of the squad. Players like Saka, Martin Odegaard and Trossard have been through those near-misses. They know what losing a title at the final stage looks like. Whether that experience helps or hounts them in the final three games is the only real question left.
Liverpool's wretched season looms large
The most telling statistic of this Premier League campaign is that Liverpool, who won the title last season in some style under Arne Slot, are now 18 points behind Arsenal in the table. Their collapse has been one of the genuine stories of the season, and it means the chasing pack has essentially been reduced to City. Arsenal cannot afford complacency — they know better than anyone what happens when you assume the job is done — but the position they are in is one most managers would take without a second thought. Three games. One win needed. The wait could be over by the weekend.
What happens if City take it to the wire
The nightmare scenario for Arsenal fans involves City winning their game in hand and then Arsenal drawing their next match, which would trim the gap to one point heading into the final day. It is possible. It is also the least likely outcome at this point, given Arsenal's form and the quality they have shown throughout the season. Arteta's side have earned this position through sustained consistency. A title win now would not feel like a fluke — it would feel earned. Which, perhaps, makes it mean a little bit more.
League context: Arsenal 79 pts from 36 games (+42 GD). Manchester City 74 pts from 35 games (+40 GD). Arsenal's matchday 37 opponent to be confirmed. Three games remaining for Arsenal, four for City.
0 Comments