Thirty-seven games remain. Gary Neville has already made up his mind.
"It's the most sure I've ever been," the Sky Sports pundit said after the opening weekend of the 2026/27 Premier League season. "And look, it could be that I've got egg on my face at the end of the season, but it's the most sure I've ever been after game one that we're going to see a team be Premier League champions." The team is Arsenal. He thinks they'll win it by a street.
What he saw on the opening weekend
Arsenal beat Coventry City 3-0 without appearing to break sweat. Everyone else near the top made hard work of something. Manchester City needed a late Josko Gvardiol goal to see off Bournemouth in Enzo Maresca's first league game since replacing Pep Guardiola. Liverpool needed a 99th-minute penalty to draw at Newcastle. Tottenham lost at Brentford. Manchester United lost at Hull.
"Last week when we were previewing the season, all I kept thinking about was that this is going to be the most unpredictable season," Neville said. "It's going to be intriguing because you've got new managers, you've got lots of new players, you've got so much change at the top. Arsenal should win this league by a street, and I don't sit here on Sunday evening thinking anything differently."
The bookmakers agree, incidentally. The Gunners went odds-on after one match.
City and Liverpool measured against their own old standards
Neville's harshest lines were reserved for the two clubs who spent most of the last decade trading the trophy between them.
"Man City are the same as Liverpool. These two clubs were getting nearly 100 points six, seven years ago. Treble winners, four times Premier League winners, Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool, Arne Slot's champions. That's just happened, and so we're measuring these two clubs by the standards that they've set, but they're nowhere near that standard."
On Liverpool specifically: "This Liverpool team are nowhere near the levels of a Premier League title-winning team. They need a lot of work." He expects the squad travelled back to Merseyside pleased with the point and quietly aware of how much is missing.
City's problem, in his view, is more specific. "They're well below where they need to be. Losing Rodri is a massive blow." Maresca inherited a squad in transition and a hole in midfield that nobody has filled.
Chelsea as the closest challengers
If not City or Liverpool, then who pushes Arsenal? Neville's answer is Chelsea, and his reasoning is practical rather than romantic.
"Chelsea will finish second, unless I see them play really badly at Fulham, so I do reserve the right to change my opinion," he said. "I do think Chelsea will finish second because of the squad and because of the fact they haven't got European competition. They haven't got the confusion, they've got a good manager."
Xabi Alonso's side start their season at Craven Cottage on Monday Night Football, against a Fulham team now managed by Alvaro Arbeloa. Neville joins Jamie Carragher on the broadcast to lay out his full season predictions. He's given himself an escape hatch on the Chelsea call. On Arsenal, he hasn't left himself one at all.
Opening weekend, 2026/27: Arsenal 3-0 Coventry City; Manchester City 2-1 Bournemouth; Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool; Brighton 4-0 Aston Villa; Brentford 3-0 Tottenham; Hull City 2-0 Manchester United. Fulham v Chelsea kicks off at 8pm on Monday 24 August, live on Sky Sports Premier League.
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