The argument starts with a simple fact: this is the first time in World Cup history that the top four FIFA-ranked teams have all made it to the semifinals. France were ranked first going in, Argentina second, Spain third, England fourth. All four are still here. On paper, that alone makes this the most statistically improbable and talent-stacked last-four the tournament has ever produced. But talking about FIFA rankings is a fairly dry way to appreciate what is actually about to happen over the next four days, so let us try a different angle.
Between the four teams remaining, you have: six World Cup titles, eight World Cup final appearances, the best player of his generation (Mbappe), the greatest player of all time by most measures (Messi), the most exciting teenager in world football (Yamal), the best midfield in the tournament (Spain's), the best individual narrative of the tournament (Bellingham), and the defending champions. There is not a fixture from these four that would disappoint anyone who watches football, regardless of where they are from.
The historical comparison
Previous tournament semifinal fields that people argue for: 1970 (Brazil, West Germany, Italy, Uruguay), 1982 (West Germany, France, Poland, Spain), 2006 (Germany, Italy, France, Portugal). Each had genuine case for quality. But none of them had the combination of individual brilliance concentrated in so few players that this one does. Mbappe at eight goals in this tournament alone. Messi in what looks like his final international summer. Bellingham dragging England to the last four twice in a single night. Yamal at 18 doing things that make defenders look like amateurs.
The counterargument — there is always one — is that the expanded 48-team format made it easier to reach this stage. Morocco, Belgium, and Norway were all capable teams who would not have reached quarterfinals in most previous editions. That is probably fair. Whether it matters, given what the teams themselves have produced, is a harder case to make.
What we want from both matches
France vs Spain on Tuesday should be the better technical match. Both sides press high and play progressive football, both have world-class midfields, and the tactical chess between Didier Deschamps and Luis de la Fuente could produce something genuinely beautiful. England vs Argentina is more about narrative and individual moments than systems — it will probably be scrappier, but the occasions when Bellingham and Messi are both on the ball in a match that matters this much do not come along often.
The final — whoever plays it — will be something to watch. Four tournaments' worth of stories, compressed into ten days of football. We are lucky to be watching it.
Semifinals schedule: France vs Spain — Tuesday July 14, 3pm ET, AT&T Stadium, Dallas | England vs Argentina — Wednesday July 15, 3pm ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
0 Comments