With three Premier League games left and a five-point gap to overhaul, Manchester City's title hopes have all but slipped through their fingers. Arsenal lead the table with 76 points to City's 71, and the margin combined with Arsenal's superior form makes it look more like a formality than a race. City dropped two crucial points in a 3-3 draw at Everton on Monday that most neutral observers felt they should have seen out comfortably. For the Gunners, only a catastrophic collapse over the next three fixtures can stop them now.
City's Everton Draw Was the Turning Point
Pep Guardiola's side were leading 3-1 with fifteen minutes to play at Goodison Park. What happened next was a collective lapse that City simply cannot afford at this stage of the season. Everton scored twice in quick succession, the second from a corner that the City backline conspired to leave entirely unmarked. Three becomes a draw, Arsenal's lead stretches to five, and suddenly a title race that felt balanced becomes overwhelmingly one-sided. City have shown throughout the season that they are capable of brilliant football — Erling Haaland has continued his remarkable scoring record and Kevin De Bruyne has enjoyed a rejuvenated campaign — but moments like Everton expose the depth of a squad that is clearly not what it was two or three years ago.
Arsenal's Path to the Title
Mikel Arteta's side face Liverpool at Anfield in Gameweek 36, followed by trips to Newcastle and Nottingham Forest to close out the season. None of those fixtures are easy on paper, but Arsenal are not the same side they were when they collapsed in similar situations in 2022-23. That group lacked the mental hardness to get over the line; this one has it. They have conceded under pressure, clawed back results when the going got difficult, and generally demonstrated the kind of composure in tight moments that you associate with title-winning sides.
What Happens if City Win Every Game?
Mathematically, City can still win it. If Guardiola's side win their final three and Arsenal lose two of their three, the title goes to the Etihad. But the tie-breaker scenario deserves a mention: if both clubs finish level on points, goal difference, and goals scored, City would actually take the title on head-to-head record, having accumulated four points against Arsenal this season. It is the kind of detail that will be living in Arteta's head. If Arsenal do it, they deserve every bit of it.
Title race context: Premier League table as of May 8, 2026 — Arsenal: 76 pts; Manchester City: 71 pts. Three matches remain for Arsenal; four for City.
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