A manager standing in front of the cameras saying there will be "no more hugs" and that the sixth head coach since last season will arrive if his players do not buy in is usually a manager talking himself out of a job. At Nottingham Forest it seems to have had the opposite effect. Sky Sports News understands that many within the club's hierarchy were impressed by Oliver Glasner's reaction to Saturday's 2-0 defeat at Brentford, and that the message internally is business as usual.
What he actually said
Forest are 19th. Glasner's assessment afterwards was that losing four of the last five games is not good enough, and that the time for changes had arrived. "I feel now maybe I made too many compromises in some stuff," he said. "I will tell them what we want to do, what we have to do, and if the players buy in, I think we can have a turnaround, and if not, the sixth manager will come in."
He also made clear he is not worrying about himself. He said he would go home and have breakfast with his family, that nobody needs to pity him, and that he could start somewhere else in a fortnight if he wanted to. The players and the staff, he pointed out, stay in the same situation the club was in last year. His word for what is needed now is ruthless, with zero compromises, and his conclusion was blunt: either you buy in or you leave.
Glasner arrived in the summer from Crystal Palace, hired to bring some order to a club that worked through four head coaches last season. Only three senior players came in over the summer, at his insistence. He speaks to the media again on Thursday, and what the changes amount to will dominate that.
The numbers behind the slump
Sky Sports data editor Adam Smith points out that creating chances has not been Forest's problem. On expected points, which are built from expected goals, Glasner's side would be fourth in the Premier League. The finishing has fallen well short of what those chances suggest.
There is a second pattern, and it is less flattering. Forest have been outrun by their opponents in each of their last five league games and have taken one point from them. In their opening four matches they were outrun once and collected five points. Since the start of last season, teams covering more ground than their opponents have won 48 per cent of Premier League matches; teams that get outrun have won 24.5 per cent.
Carragher is not convinced it lasts
Jamie Carragher, speaking on Sky Sports News, read the outburst as a manager who has been adapting himself to the club rather than the other way round, and who has now decided to stop. "We've only known Glasner at Palace, and it was really successful, but there were still times when he was quite outspoken, even when it was going well," he said, adding that he always expected Glasner and owner Evangelos Marinakis to clash eventually because both are emotional men. His advice to Forest supporters was not to bank on the pair being together for years to come. Tim Sherwood, on Soccer Saturday, doubted Glasner would still be there in January.
The next test is a big one. Manchester City come to the City Ground on Saturday evening.
Club context: Nottingham Forest are 19th in the Premier League after losing 2-0 at Brentford on Saturday, their fourth defeat in five games. Oliver Glasner was appointed in the summer following Crystal Palace, and Forest used four head coaches last season. Next up: Manchester City at home, Saturday 7 November, 17:30 GMT.
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