A year ago, Chris Sutton was calling Motherwell the best football team he had seen all season, north or south of the border. Now they have lost six league games in a row, their worst run since Terry Butcher was in charge 23 years ago, and they sit just a point off the bottom of the Scottish Premiership. How does a side that looked like outside title contenders fall this far, this quickly?
The summer that changed everything
Motherwell finished fourth last season, playing a passing game under Jens Berthel Askou that few teams could handle. They beat Rangers at Ibrox and dismantled Celtic over the festive period, with Elijah Just at the heart of it, linking play and appearing to ghost past opponents. Then the summer arrived. Just, Stephen Welsh, Elliot Watt and Callum Slattery all left, bringing in a substantial sum but leaving a gap in the middle of the team. Askou went to Toulouse, and goalkeeper Calum Ward headed to QPR.
New head coach Alfred Johansson inherited all of that, and a squad about to enter European competition. The early signs were fine. Motherwell won at Easter Road on the opening day and gave Europa League finalists Freiburg a fright across two legs. Since then, the League Cup exit at Stenhousemuir and the run of defeats have left that start looking a long way back. The latest was a 2-0 loss at home to Hearts on Sunday.
What the numbers say
The raw results suggest a team in freefall, but BBC Sport's look at the data is more nuanced. Motherwell are scoring 1.1 goals per game compared with 1.55 last season, yet their expected goals figure has actually gone up, from 1.48 to 1.6. Touches in the box and big chances are about the same, and slightly more passes are reaching the final third. In other words, they are creating, but not finishing as efficiently as they did under Askou.
The real damage is at the other end. Goals conceded per game have almost doubled, from 0.95 to 1.8, and expected goals against has risen from 1.24 to 1.76. Motherwell are facing about five more shots a game and winning almost five per cent fewer duels. Welsh's absence is probably the biggest single factor, club captain Paul McGinn has been missing too, and the goalkeeper has changed.
Panic, or a rebuilding job?
Former Celtic and Hibs midfielder Scott Allan told BBC Scotland that Motherwell no longer have the same aggression without the ball, and that a lot of it comes down to personnel, especially replacing Just. He also said the players are not as connected as they were. Last season everyone stayed close together, built out patiently, and moved the opposition around before switching play. When the ball was lost, though, they could be left badly out of position.
Allan did not think Motherwell look poor in every department, and the BBC piece describes an injury-hit squad with signs of life in performances. His conclusion was that the foundations have to be about not giving goals away. "It might just take a 1-0 scrappy goal," he said. The next two chances arrive quickly: a trip to St Johnstone on Wednesday, then St Mirren at Fir Park on Saturday. A team this short of confidence does not need pretty football. It needs a clean sheet and a win.
Match facts / Context: Motherwell have lost six straight league games, their worst league run in 23 years, and are a point off the foot of the Premiership. Next fixtures: St Johnstone (away, Wednesday) and St Mirren (home, Saturday). Head coach: Alfred Johansson. Source: BBC Sport Scotland.
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