Michael Carrick's job will be decided in Monaco on Wednesday, some 800 miles from Old Trafford, and the people flying out to discuss it are expected to recommend that he goes.
Chief executive Omar Berrada and director of football Jason Wilcox are travelling to see Sir Jim Ratcliffe for one of the regular strategy meetings that have been in the diary for a while. According to BBC Sport, the location has nothing to do with the crisis. Ratcliffe lives in the principality and Ineos keeps offices there. It just so happens that the item at the top of this week's agenda is whether Manchester United, 18th in the Premier League and without a league win since August, keep their head coach.
Why the board changed its mind
United stood by Carrick after the 3-0 home defeat by Bournemouth on 25 October. The thinking then was that the November international break would be a better moment to judge the season properly. Three games later, the view inside the club has hardened.
None of those games were calm. United came from two goals down to beat Roma 3-2 on 3 November, their first win in a long while. They then dominated the first half at Chelsea and still lost 2-0 after Lisandro Martinez was sent off. On Sunday against Aston Villa they conceded twice inside five minutes and had to come back from two down twice to scrape a 4-4 draw. Berrada and Wilcox were at all three. Sources say the comebacks proved the players are still running for Carrick, but the chaos, and the sheer number of goals leaking in, convinced the pair a change is needed. United have conceded 30 times in 15 games this season: 19 in the league, eight in four Champions League games and three in their only Carabao Cup tie.
There is a softer option on the table too. Rather than sacking Carrick, the club could bring in extra coaching support around him. Aaron Danks, who worked with Carrick at Middlesbrough and is currently minding Bayern Munich while Vincent Kompany recovers, is one name mentioned.
Ratcliffe has the casting vote in practice, the Glazers on paper
The working assumption is that Ratcliffe accepts the recommendation. Turning it down would leave Berrada and Wilcox in an awkward spot, because it is hard to see how they could carry on working with a coach they had asked to remove. Ratcliffe, for his part, still backs the pair despite heavy criticism from supporters, and despite the fact United are heading for a third successive mid-season sacking.
The Glazer family also has to sign off. When Ratcliffe bought his 28.94% stake for just over £1bn, the board handed football control to him, but United's articles of association allow delegated powers to be "revoked or altered". Six of the club's 12 directors are Glazers, including co-chairs Joel and Avi. Nothing has been said publicly by the family.
There is also a practical snag. Berrada and Wilcox want to tell Carrick face to face, and they will be in Monaco on Wednesday, so a decision may not be announced straight away. In the meantime Carrick carries on. He scheduled training for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with the players not on international duty, a group that includes Mason Mount, Joshua Zirkzee, Matthijs de Ligt and the injured Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw and Marcus Rashford. The squad is due back on 17 November ahead of the trip to Liverpool on 22 November.
Pochettino leads a short list
If Carrick goes, Mauricio Pochettino looks like the man to beat. United have spoken to him three times before: after Jose Mourinho's sacking in 2018, in 2022 before they chose Erik ten Hag, and again when Ten Hag left. He wants the job. The problem is that he already has one. The 54-year-old renewed his USA contract in August, faces Haiti in a two-legged Concacaf Nations League quarter-final over the next week, and has a $10m (£7.5m) release clause. He is due to speak to the media on Friday, which should be interesting.
Eddie Howe is out of work and would cost £3m in compensation to Newcastle if appointed now, a figure that falls through the season and disappears in the summer. Antonio Conte, 57, wants it as well, with Premier League and Serie A titles on his record. Julian Nagelsmann, 39, is free after leaving Germany following their last-32 World Cup exit. Kieran McKenna knows the club from his time on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's staff, though United are thought to want someone with more experience than the 40-year-old.
Our read: the meeting is a formality on the main question and a real argument on the second one. Sacking Carrick is the easy part. Getting Pochettino out of a World Cup host nation's job in mid-cycle, at a price, is not, and Howe is the obvious fallback if the USA talks drag.
Context: Michael Carrick, 45, won 12 of 17 games as interim boss before signing a two-year deal as head coach last summer. Manchester United are 18th in the Premier League with one win from ten league games. Decision meeting: Monaco, Wednesday 11 November 2026. Next fixture: Liverpool (a), 22 November. Source reporting: BBC Sport.
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