There has hardly been time for Craig Bellamy and Wales to enjoy beating Norway. The job now is to take a second Scandinavian scalp, as Denmark visit Cardiff City Stadium on Sunday (19:45 BST) in Nations League Group A4. A win would give Wales back-to-back victories over higher-ranked sides for the first time in more than a decade.
It matters beyond pride. A result against the Danes would move Wales a long way towards keeping their top-tier Nations League place and would give their Euro 2028 hopes a real lift.
Where Wales stand
Thursday's 2-1 win over Norway, against ten men, ended a six-game winless run. It was Wales' first success in this League A campaign after opening defeats in Portugal and Denmark, and it did not lift them off the bottom of the group. They still trail the Danes and Norway on goal difference. Last weekend in Copenhagen they lost 2-0 to this same Denmark side.
This is Wales' second go at League A. Their first, under Rob Page in 2022, ended in immediate relegation without a win, and Bellamy has said the aim is to avoid a repeat. Win on Sunday and the fate of the group stays in Wales' own hands going into the last two fixtures: Norway in Oslo on 14 November, then Portugal in Cardiff three days later.
A softer landing than before
There is a safety net this time. A tweak to the format for the 2028-29 Nations League means fewer teams go down. Only the two worst-performing bottom sides are demoted, while the other two enter two-legged play-offs in March 2027. The two best third-placed sides are guaranteed their status and the next two head for the play-offs as well. Ranking comes down to points, goal difference and the usual tie-breakers.
Wales are currently the best of the four bottom-placed teams, so beating Denmark would give them a real chance of avoiding the play-offs altogether. It would also keep alive the longer shot of finishing second and reaching the knockout quarter-finals, which are two-legged and due in March.
The Euro 2028 angle
Seeding for Euro 2028 qualifying is based on the final Nations League ranking, and the draw takes place in Belfast on 6 December, with the teams split into 12 groups. The 12 best-performing sides after next month's final games will be kept apart as first seeds. If Wales avoid finishing bottom, they will be a top seed and miss the big guns in qualifying.
Wales co-host the tournament with England, the Republic of Ireland and Scotland, but they go through the standard qualifying process. All the host nations will be kept apart in the draw and try to qualify automatically, although two places at the finals are reserved in case any of them fail.
Our call: Wales have the momentum and a home crowd, but Denmark beat them comfortably a week ago and will not come to Cardiff to be generous. A 1-1 draw feels the likeliest outcome, which would help Wales a little and settle very little.
Match facts: Wales v Denmark, UEFA Nations League Group A4, Sunday 4 October 2026, 19:45 BST, Cardiff City Stadium. Wales beat Norway 2-1 on Thursday and lost 2-0 to Denmark in Copenhagen last weekend. Final group games: Norway (away) 14 November, Portugal (home) 17 November.
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