Nigeria arrive in Bissau on Tuesday second in their own group, which is not where anybody in Uyo expected to be after one round of matches. Guinea-Bissau went to Tanzania and won 2-0. Nigeria beat Madagascar 2-1 at the Godswill Akpabio Stadium but conceded early and had to dig the result out. Same points, worse goal difference, and now the Super Eagles have to go and fix it at the Estádio 24 de Setembro.
Eric Chelle named 24 players for the double-header and has been juggling ever since. Victor Osimhen is out of both matches with a muscle injury, which removes the one player opponents plan their whole defensive week around.
What Nigeria have without Osimhen
Plenty, on paper. Wilfred Ndidi in front of the back four, Alex Iwobi ahead of him, Ademola Lookman wide. Iwobi took the man-of-the-match award against Madagascar without scoring, which tells you how the game went: he set the second goal up and ran the middle third while Nigeria sorted themselves out after the early concession.
Behind them Chelle can pick from Ola Aina, Calvin Bassey, Semi Ajayi and Bruno Onyemaechi, with Stanley Nwabali, Maduka Okoye and Arthur Okonkwo covering the goalkeeper position. The forward line is where the thinking gets harder. George Ilenikhena was brought in as Osimhen's replacement and is himself a doubt, and Nigerian reports have also listed Tolu Arokodare and Akor Adams as uncertain. That is a lot of uncertainty for one afternoon's work in West Africa.
Guinea-Bissau are not a soft fixture
The Djurtus beat Tanzania without much of the ball and defended their lead properly, with Mama Baldé scoring from the left. Baldé is 30 and quick, and on a home pitch that has already been described as a problem surface, the team that commits to running straight at people usually has the better afternoon.
History still favours Nigeria. The two countries have met four times, Nigeria have won three of those and Guinea-Bissau one, and there have been no draws. But head-to-head records are a comfort, not a plan, and Nigeria's plan has a hole in it where a centre-forward should be.
What is actually at stake
Two matches into a qualifying group is early enough that nothing is decided and late enough that a bad result costs you. Winning in Bissau puts Nigeria top and turns the rest of the campaign into management rather than rescue. Losing, with Osimhen unavailable and the striker position unresolved, starts a conversation Nigerian football has had far too many times.
Chelle's side should have enough. Iwobi and Ndidi in a two-man engine room is more midfield than Guinea-Bissau can match over ninety minutes, and Lookman is the kind of player who settles a tight away game with one moment. Call it 2-1 to Nigeria, and not comfortable.
Match facts: Guinea-Bissau v Nigeria, 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying, Group L, Estádio 24 de Setembro, Bissau, Tuesday 29 September 2026. Guinea-Bissau beat Tanzania 2-0 in their opener; Nigeria beat Madagascar 2-1 in Uyo. Guinea-Bissau lead Group L on goal difference. Nigeria coach Eric Chelle named a 24-man squad; Victor Osimhen ruled out of both September fixtures with a muscle injury. Head-to-head: four meetings, Nigeria 3, Guinea-Bissau 1, no draws.
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