Wales are into the Women's World Cup play-off final against Norway, and even a famous win may not send them to Brazil. That is the awkward detail in a qualification system BBC Sport describes as complex.
Rhian Wilkinson's side beat Albania in Tuesday's semi-final to extend an unbeaten run to 10 matches, the longest in their history. The final's home leg is at Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday, 1 December, with the return in Norway four days later.
Why a win might not be enough
Wales's tie is one of eight play-off finals in the European branch of qualifying. Seven of the eight winners go straight to the tournament. The eighth, the lowest-ranked nation from the group stage of qualifying, goes into inter-confederation play-offs next February.
Wales topped their League B pool, but that is the problem. Before the semi-finals there seemed a decent chance Wales would be the lowest-ranked team to reach the final round. Then Finland beat Serbia in their semi. Finland were League B runners-up, so they ranked below Wales in the group-stage standings, and they now face Italy, who are 14th in the Fifa rankings. If Finland win, a Welsh victory over Norway would book a direct place. If Finland lose, success against Norway would still mean the inter-confederation play-offs.
Norway are the favourites
Norway are 13th in the world, 18 places above Wales, after an 8-0 aggregate win over Romania in their semi-final. They have never missed a World Cup and were champions in 1995. Wales have never played in one. They have also never beaten a side ranked in the world's top 20 in a competitive game.
Former Wales captain Kath Morgan called Norway "the best draw" Wilkinson's players could have hoped for, though she added that Norway will have some doubt in their minds. Wilkinson has said the pressure is on the big nations.
A reunion on the touchline
Gemma Grainger will be in the other dugout. She was Wales boss between 2021 and 2024, lost the 2023 World Cup play-off final stage to Switzerland, and quit to take the Norway job. Wilkinson dismissed it as "storylines" and pointed out that much of her squad never worked with Grainger.
Some of them did, however. "We have had a really good relationship with Gemma and we respect her a lot," said captain Angharad James. "But of course it adds a little bit of spice." She added there would be no friends on the night. "We are going out to cause a few upsets."
Fixtures: Wales v Norway, Cardiff City Stadium, Tuesday 1 December; return leg in Norway four days later. Norway are 13th in the Fifa rankings, Wales 31st. Wales unbeaten in 10 (a national record). Source: BBC Sport Wales.
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